Favorable Factors:
1. Raw material costs remained under pressure as Tangshan strip steel prices extended their decline, narrowing the cost floor for ERW pipe.
2. The USD/CNY rate held steady within a narrow band, keeping export cost calculations predictable for buyers.
3. Demand from Africa and the Middle East stayed resilient, supporting order intake into the fourth quarter.
Adverse Factors:
1. Tangshan Ruifeng strip steel has fallen for six consecutive sessions, signaling softening mill sentiment and weaker near-term support.
2. Recent steelmaker quarterly results show profits squeezed by both raw material and finished-product margins, raising the odds of production cuts or price support moves that add uncertainty to forward quotes.
3. Buyers continued to purchase hand-to-mouth, reluctant to commit to forward volume amid the downward drift.
Outlook:
ERW pipe FOB prices are expected to hold in a soft, narrow range near current levels. Continued weakness in strip steel could push quotes marginally lower, while any mill-led production cuts would provide a floor. Watch weekly raw material moves and steelmaker margin signals.
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