Favorable Factors:
1. Raw material costs firmed as Tangshan Ruifeng strip steel prices edged up CNY 5/MT across the board, lifting the cost floor for ERW pipe.
2. Mill pricing discipline held through the weekend; no new discounting pressure from domestic producers.
3. Currency moves remained orderly, with the USD/CNH band narrow enough to keep export cost calculations stable.
4. Spot demand from Africa and the Middle East stayed resilient, supporting order books into Q4.
Adverse Factors:
1. End-user procurement remained hand-to-mouth, with buyers reluctant to commit to forward volumes.
2. Export competition in Southeast Asia intensified as Chinese mills chased thin-margin orders.
3. The industry association’s characterization of a deep adjustment phase points to continued pressure on margins.
Outlook:
ERW pipe FOB prices are expected to hold in a narrow range near current levels, with raw material costs providing floor support while soft demand caps upside.
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