Favorable Factors:
1. Strip steel prices steady at 3,300 CNY/MT; cost floor remains solid
2. RMB exchange rate declined to 6.71; export competitiveness improved
3. Infrastructure pipeline projects driving steady domestic demand
4. Pig iron and coke prices remain elevated; cost support intact
5. Middle East construction projects sustaining overseas inquiry levels
Adverse Factors:
1. EU 50% anti-dumping duty effective July 1; European market access limited
2. CBAM carbon compliance costs adding EUR 75-120/ton for EU-bound shipments
3. China total steel exports down 8.3% YoY in Q1 2026; oversupply pressure
4. Hot-rolled coil inventory at Tianjin port elevated; price competition intensifying
5. Global trade protectionism rising; multiple regions imposing tariffs on Chinese steel
Outlook:
FOB Tianjin price stands at $588/MT this week, down $4 from last week. Raw material costs retreated 40 CNY/MT while RMB depreciation partially offset the decline. Cost support around $585/MT remains the key floor, but EU tariffs and trade headwinds continue to pressure export margins. Market participants watch for Q3 infrastructure spending releases for demand-side catalysts.
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