Favorable Factors:
1. Strip steel prices holding firm at current levels; cost support remains steady for ERW producers
2. RMB continues to weaken against USD; export competitiveness improving for Chinese mills
3. Middle East and Africa demand sustained; order pipeline healthy through Q4
Adverse Factors:
1. Domestic end-user demand weak; downstream buyers adopting wait-and-see approach ahead of National Day
2. Inventory levels elevated across supply chain; destocking pressure persists in Sept
3. EU CBAM and US tariff uncertainty continue; Western market access remains challenging
Outlook:
ERW pipe FOB prices expected to consolidate in $584-588/MT range near term. Raw material costs provide floor support but weak seasonal demand limits upside potential. Mills focusing on Middle East and Africa orders where margins remain viable.
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