Favorable Factors:
1. Coke surging for 5th consecutive round; fundamental cost push driving prices up; steelmakers holding firm on offers as margins compressed
2. Middle East conflict escalating; supply disruption risk supporting steelmaker pricing sentiment
Adverse Factors:
1. Iron ore prices weakening; port inventories high and Simandou mine ramping up shipments, undermining cost support
2. Overseas demand recovering slowly; Southeast Asian buyers sidelined; North China pipe mill inventories at 58.7WT (+3WT WoW)
3. EU 50% tariff effective July 1; Japan and Korea launching anti-dumping probes on Chinese steel; trade barriers multiplying
Outlook:
FOB likely to hold around $585-590 this week. Coke surge provides upward push, but weak iron ore, sluggish overseas demand, and looming EU tariff deadline cap gains. Expect sideways with slight downside bias.
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