Favorable Factors:
1. RMB weakened to 6.70 (buying rate basis) — FOB more competitive for overseas buyers
2. Coke prices still climbing (7th round up) — cost floor holding, strip unlikely to drop
Adverse Factors:
1. Summer demand soft — export orders slowing, buyers holding off
2. CBAM expansion to 180+ categories from Jan 2027 — EU buyers cautious on new commitments
Outlook:
FOB at $588/MT, up $2 on RMB adjustment. Cost side firm but demand is quiet — typical summer slowdown. Expect $585-595 next week. Currency tailwind keeps the floor intact, but no real upside catalyst until post-summer demand returns.
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