Favorable Factors:
1. US-Iran deal done, Hormuz Strait to reopen — Gulf shipping costs set to drop
2. Strip steel cost pressure easing — raw material prices trending down
3. Middle East reconstruction demand picking up for oil/gas facilities
Adverse Factors:
1. CBAM officially in force since Jan 2026 — carbon costs added to EU-bound shipments
2. Japan, Korea, Turkey imposing anti-dumping duties — broader trade friction
3. June is traditional slow season — end-user demand stays weak
Outlook:
FOB price slightly down this week as raw material costs eased. RMB depreciation partially offset the decline. Hormuz reopening should lower freight to Middle East, but EU carbon compliance costs remain a structural headwind. Summer slowdown keeps demand muted — expect prices to hold steady with mild downside pressure near term.
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