Favorable Factors:
1. EU’s new steel safeguard (50% out-of-quota duty) diverts EU-bound cargoes, tightening supply for non-EU buyers
2. China’s shipbuilding boom sustains domestic steel demand, lending some floor to raw material prices
3. Middle East shipping disruptions push up freight costs — buyers less sensitive to FOB adjustments
Adverse Factors:
1. Strip steel prices continuing to soften — cost support eroding week by week
2. Summer low season — downstream procurement sluggish, market sentiment bearish
3. Most Chinese mills still unprofitable with rising inventory — pricing pressure intensifies
4. RMB slightly appreciating, giving exporters room to lower USD quotes
Outlook:
With raw material costs easing and summer demand staying soft, FOB likely to remain under mild pressure this coming week. EU quota tightening and shipping disruptions may offer some support for non-EU destinations, but overall direction leans slightly downward.
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