Favorable Factors:
1. Strip steel prices rebounded midweek then stabilized — cost support holding firm
2. China keeps a sharp price edge over Japan and Turkey in global export market — buyer interest sustained
3. Global manufacturing PMI still in expansion zone — downstream steel demand has a floor
Adverse Factors:
1. EU new steel import rules now live — quota nearly halved, out-of-quota tariff doubled, European orders taking a hit
2. Multiple countries rolling out anti-dumping probes against Chinese steel — market access shrinking
3. Peak summer off-season — domestic demand sluggish, mills running at a loss
4. CBAM Phase 2 batch-level carbon reporting kicked in — extra compliance cost piling up
Outlook:
FOB edges up slightly on firmer raw material costs and a stronger dollar. But gains stay capped by summer demand weakness and tightening trade barriers on multiple fronts. Expect prices to hold in a narrow range next week with limited upside.
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