Favorable Factors:
1. Mills are holding firm on ex-works quotes instead of chasing volume, which keeps the market from sliding further.
2. Pipe makers are still running thin margins, leaving very little room to cut prices.
3. Output controls and maintenance at some mills are tightening supply and putting a floor under quotes.
Adverse Factors:
1. Strip steel and scrap both softened this week, removing the cost support that held prices up in late October.
2. Downstream buyers are still holding back, keeping trading volumes thin on the ground.
3. Seasonal cold weather and slower construction are dragging on end-user demand, with buyers purchasing hand-to-mouth ahead of year-end.
Outlook:
With raw material costs easing and demand still soft, there is little to push prices higher near term, but thin mill margins and output controls keep the downside limited too. We expect ERW black steel pipe prices to stay broadly flat with a mild downward bias next week. The key thing to watch is whether strip steel finds a floor.
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