Favorable Factors:
1. Strip steel prices up to 3,395 CNY/MT; cost support strengthening
2. China export orders index returned to expansion at 50.3% in April
3. Middle East supply gap from Iran disruption boosting pipe demand
4. May HRC export plans up 23% MoM to 1.14M MT
5. SE Asia and Africa demand remains firm for ERW pipe
Adverse Factors:
1. EU new steel measure: 50% tariff on over-quota imports from July 1
2. CBAM fully operational; carbon compliance costs rising
3. 19 anti-dumping cases against Chinese steel under investigation
4. Jan-Apr cumulative steel exports down 9.7% YoY
5. Hot-rolled coil inventory still high; destocking pressure persists
Outlook:
ERW pipe FOB prices to hold steady at $599/MT with slight upward bias. Cost support at 3,395 CNY. Export orders and Middle East demand provide momentum; EU barriers and anti-dumping pressure cap upside. Focus on emerging markets for volume growth.
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