Favorable Factors:
1. Yuan weakening against USD — widens export pricing room for FOB offers
2. Mills maintaining disciplined output, supply-side not adding pressure
Adverse Factors:
1. Raw material prices stay low — cost support weakens, FOB lacks upward momentum
2. Offseason demand — downstream procurement willingness remains general
3. EU quota tariff hikes to 50% from July, plus CBAM stacking on — European market getting harder
4. Vietnam, Japan, Korea tightening barriers on Chinese steel — alternative markets shrinking
Outlook:
Short-term FOB prices remain under mild pressure. Cost side offers limited support while demand stays tepid. EU tariff wall going up July 1st adds uncertainty. Watch for policy signals and any seasonal recovery in emerging markets.
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