Favorable Factors:
1. Strip steel prices hold at 3,285 CNY/MT; Tangshan steel mills maintain prices stable
2. Seasonal peak demand continues (Mar-Apr); social inventory drawdown for 6th consecutive week
3. SE Asia and West Africa demand rising rapidly; new market share expanding
4. Policy support: National pipeline network construction drives long-term demand
5. X70+ high-grade ERW pipe penetration rising in gas transmission pipelines
Adverse Factors:
1. EU 2026 steel quota reduced 47% vs 2024; 50% tariff on over-quota imports (effective Apr 13)
2. EU CBAM fully operational from 2026; carbon certificate price EUR 75.36/t CO2 (Q1 2026)
3. China carbon market not recognized for CBAM deduction; full carbon cost to apply
4. Mexico, EAEU maintain AD duties on Chinese seamless pipes
5. Hot-rolled coil inventory at high levels; destocking pressure persists
Outlook:
Apr 27 – May 1: China USD FOB ERW pipe prices to hold steady with slight upward bias. Strip steel cost provides floor support at 3,285 CNY. Southeast Asia and West Africa demand accelerates. Focus on emerging markets for volume growth while monitoring EU quota utilization.
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