Steel Pipe Price Trend Week of Apr 20: Cost Support vs Soft Demand

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Favorable Factors

  1. Strip steel prices rise to 3,240 CNY/MT; cost support strengthens (+20 CNY from last week)
  2. Seasonal peak season (Mar-Apr) accelerates demand; inventory drawdown continues
  3. SE Asia and West Africa demand rising rapidly; new market share expanding
  4. Policy stimulus: 8,000B CNY special bonds for infrastructure drives pipe demand

Adverse Factors

  1. EU 2026 steel quota reduced 47% vs 2024 levels; 50% tariff on over-quota imports (effective Apr 13)
  2. EU CBAM fully operational in 2026; carbon compliance adds cost burden
  3. Hot-rolled coil inventory at high levels; destocking pressure persists
  4. Middle East market stagnation continues; traditional buyers on hold
  5. Global trade barriers rising; Mexico, EAEU maintain AD duties on Chinese pipes

Outlook

Apr 20-24: China USD FOB ERW pipe prices to hold firm with mild upward tendency. Strip steel cost increase supports floor price, while improving SE Asia/West Africa demand provides lift. EU market remains challenging due to quota constraints. Focus on Southeast Asia and Africa for volume growth.

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